The Primary season is nearing its end in the United States, with the Democratic Convention now two months out, and Donald Trump having essentially secured the Republican Party nomination as Cruz and Kasich have both suspended their campaigns. While Bernie Sanders is still in the race for the Democratic Party nomination it is looking increasingly unlikely, as he is currently 283 pledged delegates behind Clinton. Although there are still several primaries left, including the delegate-rich California, Bernie would have to win by large margins in these primaries to be able to secure the nomination, unless there is a contested Democratic Convention or July or Hillary Clinton is indicted as a result of the FBI's ongoing investigation.
Regardless of who the nominee is, one thing is certain; they will have to run against Trump in a general election, and the idea of a President Trump is somewhat unnerving. But if you were to look at polling around favorability of both Clinton and Sanders compared to Trump you would notice something undeniably interesting/terrifying, depending on who you think the Democratic nominee will be.
It is not surprising that Donald Trump has the highest unfavorables of all the candidates, the Huffington Post currently has him at 58.6% Unfavorable - 36.5% Favorable.
Donald Trump Favorability rating from the Huffington Post [screen grab]
In fact Trump is so unpopular that Public Policy Polling recently release an interesting list of things that are MORE popular than Trump, it includes:
- Nickelback
- Used Car Salesmen
- Traffic Jams
- Hipsters
- The DMV
- Root Canals
- Jury Duty
- Lice
Now the terrifying part. Hillary Clinton, who at this point looks to be the Democratic nominee, has terrible favorability ratings, although less than Trumps, they are bad enough to warrant concern, considering their possible general election matchup. The Huffington Post has her at 54.6% Unfavorable - 41.5% Favorable.
Hillary Clinton favorability rating, from Huffington Post [screen grab]
A recent article by Reuters highlights a curious phenomena which has been brought out by these two candidates, that is Negative Partisanship, when voters support one candidate only to block the other from entering office, and vice versa for voters supporting the opposition candidate. A Reuters/Ipsos poll of Clinton and Trump supporters showed a large amount of voters engaging in Negative Partisanship. The poll shows that among Clinton supporters polled, at least 46% were doing so in order to prevent Trump from winning (at least 40% supported her based on her positions) while among Trump supporters 47% were supporting him in order to prevent Clinton from winning (at least 43% supporting him based on his positions). Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, says in the article that "If we were trying to maximize the effect, we couldn't have found better nominees than Trump and Clinton".
Another poll conducted by Public Policy Polling shows that currently, Hillary Clinton only has a 4 point lead over Trump among voters nationwide. More cause for concern over Clinton v Trump in a general is Trumps appeal to independent voters. An exit poll of Sanders voters in the West Virginia primary (which Sanders won) showed that 44% would back Trump if the general election were to be Trump v Clinton, while only 23% would back Clinton and 31% backing neither candidate.
Speaking of Bernie Sanders, there a polls indicating that in a hypothetical general election with him against Trump, Sanders has a much wider lead than Clinton does. with one PPP poll showing that Sanders leads Trump by 11 points, and a NBC News/Survey Monkey poll showing Sanders leading by 13 points.
Although Hillary Clinton may well be the Democrats nominee, based from these recent polls, it shows that Bernie Sanders is the more electable candidate. If the Democratic Party wanted to choose the best candidate for the general election, as it currently stands,the Superdelegates should consider a switch to Sanders' side. There are still 10 primaries to go before the convention in July, and Sanders has vowed to campaign to the end. so it will be interesting to see how the rest of the Democratic Primary plays out.
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